하나은행 하나금융연구소

▶ 중국의 부양책, 경제악화 가속화에 따른 起死回生 노력 ● 올 11월 중국의 경제지표가 예상보다 급속히 악화된 것으로 나타나 내년도 중국경제에 대한 우려가 확대되는 가운데, 지난주 막을 내린 중앙경제회의에서는 경기부양에 대한 강력한 의지를 천명 ● 중국당국의 정책 결정에 있어 단기적으로는 경착륙 방지를 위한 경기부양과 중·장기적으로는 지속성장을 위한 경제의 체질개선 간 균형 유지가 가장 중요한 과제로 등장 ● 4조위안 규모에 달하는 이번 중국의 경기부양책은 단기간 가시적 성과를 낼 수 있는 인프라 투자에 집중될 예정이며, 이에 따라 2009년 중국의 경제성장률은 1∼2%p 향상된 7%대의 성장률 기대 ● 반면, 큰 폭으로 둔화되고 있는 중국의 수출은 세계경제 침체에 따른 외수둔화와 중국정부의 위안화 환율의 안정 기조 유지 결정으로 당분간 악화세가 지속될 전망 ● 수출보다 내수부양에 집중된 중국의 경기부양책은 중국 내수시장보다 중국의 수출용 시장에 편중되어 있는 한국 수출에 상당히 제한적인 효과를 미칠 것으로 분석되며, 이에 따라 내년도 한국의 대중수출 역시 지속적으로 위축될 가능성이 높을 것으로 판단 ● 중국정부가 장기적으로 내수소비 위주형 경제구조로의 전환에 초점을 둔만큼 새로운 수익기회 창출을 위해 중국 내수시장으로의 적극적인 진출이 요구되며, 특히 이를 통해 중국의 수출 침체가 한국의 대중 수출 악화로 이어지는 리스크를 최소화시킬 필요가 존재

▶ Efforts to Revive China's Flagging Economy ■ Newly released economic indicators show that the economy is deteriorating much faster than expected ● Export growth plunged in November to -2.3% YoY, the first contraction in six years since 2002, mainly due to the abrupt decline in exports to the U.S. ● In addition, industrial production growth slowed to 5.4%, the lowest level in the past 7 years. ● All of the economic indicators are deteriorating much faster than expected, and if this trend continues, GDP growth will likely slip below 6% in 4Q. ■ China's bailout package is focused on investment rather than domestic consumption ● The government has sought to alleviate the economic slowdown with interest rate cuts since September, bringing the tightening policy to an end. ● In the past 3 months, the government has been working on a raft of bailout measures which cover various areas including exports, the real estate market and domestic consumption. However, the emphasis remains on supporting investment, particularly in infrastructure. ● The current bailout package resembles the government's economic bailout practices from 10 years ago. At that time, the Chinese economy was slipping into a recession during the Asina financial crisis, and an expansionary fiscal policy that boosted investment proved to be effective. ■ Government measures could boost growth to over 7% in 2009 ● Since the slowdown in exports is mainly due to a contraction of overseas demand, trade rebate adjustments are unlikely to be effective in boosting export growth. ● Measures aimed at stimulating consumption are less intense than expected. In recent years, the government has been making an effort to shift to a domestic demand driven economy. However, the current bailout measures offer insufficient support for consumption and remain focused on investment. ● The bailout package is unlikely to have a significant impact on total domestic consumption. However, rural consumption will likely improve as various measures to support rural areas are strengthened. ● The bailout measures, totalling 4 trillion yuan, will focus on infrastructure investment and is expected to have a positive impact in the short run. GDP growth in 2009 will likely rise by 1~2%p to over 7%. ● However, a new investment boom could lead to overproduction once again, which would curb growth in the long run. ■ Implications for Korea: Exports should target China's domestic demand market ● Korean export growth fell to -18.3% in November, the lowest point in the last 7 years, mainly due to declining exports to China. ● Our analysis indicates that Korean exports are more closely correlated with Chinese exports than with domestic demand, which is a result of the Korean-Sino trade structure. ● China's bailout package is focused on boosting investment and is expected to have little impact on Chinese exports. As a result, Chinese exports are expected to continue to deteriorate in 2009, which suggests that a recovery in Korean exports is unlikely in the near term. ● In order to alleviate the negative impact from China, Korea should undertake measures to expand exports that target China's domestic demand market.