하나은행 하나금융연구소

▶ 중국 증시 투자 좀 더 신중하라! ● 리만 브라더스 파산 신청 이후 글로벌 금융 불안이 고조되며 중국 증시는 한때(9/18) 1,800p선까지 하락하기도 했으나 이후 강력한 반등세를 보이고, PER 등 밸류에이션 지표들도 수년래 최저점 혹은 해외 증시 수준으로 하락하여 저점 확인 및 반등 가능성에 대한 기대가 증가 ● 그러나 다음과 같은 펀더멘털 요소들을 점검해 볼 때 일단 중기적 상승 추세 전환은 어려울 것으로 판단됨 1) GDP 성장률이 2007년 2/4분기 12.6%를 고점으로 하락추세가 지속될 전망. 글로벌 경기 악화 속에 수출 감소가 불가피할 전망이며, 부동산 경기도 급랭하며 투자가 위축될 것으로 우려되기 때문. 경제성장을 지탱할 것으로 기대되나 해외수요를 완전히 대체하지는 못할 전망 2) 이같이 경기가 위축되며 기업 실적 증가세도 둔화될 것. 특히 전체 상장기업 순익의 절반 정도를 차지하는 은행업에서 부동산 경기 위축에 따른 건전성 악화가 우려됨 3) 그간 중국 정부가 시행해온 긴축정책의 영향에다 투자심리 위축으로 시중 유동성이 안전한 예금으로 회귀하는 상황에서 비유통주 해제로 인한 매물 부담이 2010년까지 계속될 전망 4) 내년에도 증시 부양책은 집중적으로 발표될 전망이나 효과는 제한적일 것으로 판단됨 ● 이러한 요소들을 종합적으로 판단할 때, 낙폭이 과다하다는 사실에만 주목하여 시장에 진입하기에는 아직 이른 것으로 보이나 2009년 집중될 것으로 예상되는 부양책 발표와 이에 따른 시장 변동성 증가는 관련 주식에 대한 단기적 투자기회를 제공해 줄 수도 있을 것

▶ The Chinese stock market should be regarded with caution ■ Some investors believe now is the right time to enter the Chinese market since it has fallen about 70% from last year's peak ● The Shanghai composite index has fallen sharply to 1,800, which is regarded as a supportive floor, since Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy on Sept. 16. Since then, the market has recovered slightly and was fluctuating around the 2,200 level at the end of September. ● From a market valuation perspective, the P/E ratio has dropped to 16x, which is the lowest point since 2000 and close to the global average. The E/P ratio is increasing and is currently above the one-year deposit rate, and the rapid decline in the A/H premium indicates a convergence between valuations of the Shanghai and Hong Kong stock markets. ● In light of the size of the decline and the rationalization of valuations, some investors suggest that the market bubble has been deflated and that now is the best time to enter the market ▶ However, we believe that conditions do not yet support a rising market ■ Macroeconomic conditions continue to deteriorate, and the risk of a internal and external slowdown are rising ● China has recorded four consecutive quarters of falling GDP growth, which indicates that China has not been able to avoid the global economic slowdown. This year, the economic slowdown is being driven by deteriorating exports due to shrinking foreign demand, particularly from developed countries. ● As the financial crisis continues to weight on the U.S. economy, the risk of both the U.S. and the EU slipping into recession is rising. Chinese exports are continue to trend downward into next year. ● In addition, current economic indicators suggest the slowdown is extending to domestic demand sectors. Robust growth in investment, which has been the main driver of economic growth so far, is likely to falter due to the downward correction in the real estate market and deteriorating industrial production. ● A shift from an external slowdown with internal growth to a slowdown that is both external and internal is becoming increasingly likely, and China is expected to face more severe challenges in the coming year. ■ Deterioration of corporate profitability is accelerating ● In 1H 2008, publicly listed firms recorded net profit growth of 17% YoY. However, the financial industry has been the main source of profits, and excluding this sector, listed corporations in non-financial sectors recorded a contraction in net profits. ● The banking industry, which accounts for about 47% of total net profits for listed firms, is unlikely to maintain its current growth trend due to losses from the global financial crisis. The asset quality of banks' mortgage portfolios is another area of concern. ● In addition, weakening exports, rising production costs driven by the widening gap between CPI and PPI, and increasing labor costs will further erode corporate profits. As a result, corporate profit growth is expected to slow further to 10% in the coming year. ■ The market liquidity supply/demand imbalance will likely persist for some time ● Market liquidity is falling due to a tightening monetary policy, and the abrupt rise in bank deposits during the recent market turmoil is indicative of a large-scale flow of funds from the stock market to bank deposits. This has resulted in a decrease in the supply of capital to the market. ● On the other hand, the lifting of restrictions on non-traded shares means a large supply of shares is slated to be floated on the market, particularly in 2009. This amount is expected to reach 7.3 trillion yuan, more than twice the amount for 2008. ■ The prospect of market-friendly government policies and economic measures will have a positive influence on the market, but the effects will be limited ● Since the current bear market is being driven by fundamental problems rather than the market itself, The effects of policies targeted at the market, such as tax cuts and pressure on state-owned companies to hold more shares, will be temporary. ● Economic growth measures are likely to be more effective than market-oriented policies, and the resolve of the Chinese government in implementing these measures should lift market sentiment. ● In the coming quarters, we expect to see an end to tightening monetary policies and the introduction of measures to encourage investment, which could include support for the real estate market and FDI. ● However, as more commercial banks become publicly listed companies, they will intensify their pursuit for profits, and as the portion of private sector investment rises, the efficacy of government policies, particularly bank loan controls and support for construction, is likely to become increasingly limited. ▶ Conclusion ■ It remains uncertain if now is the right time to enter the market, but short-term investments in policy-related shares may offer attractive opportunities ● In light of the unfavorable fundamentals and the trends in market liquidity and policy measures, we believe that entering the market at this time is inadvisable. Conditions do not yet support an upward trend in the Chinese market. ● However, the next several quarters will bring new monetary and fiscal policies, which could give rise to attractive short-term investment opportunities, particularly in stocks which are closely related to the anticipated policies.