하나은행 하나금융연구소

▶ 고유가 지속, 중국경제에 대한 시련 ● 최근의 유가 급등세는 비탄력적인 원유 공급에 비해 중국을 비롯한 신흥시장에서의 원유 수요 증가로 인한 수급 불균형 문제가 가장 결정적인 원인 ● 최근 세계경제의 둔화에도 불구하고 중국의 고성장세 유지, 올림픽 개최, 지진 피해 복구 수요 등을 감안하면 중국의 원유 수요 증가세는 당분간 지속될 가능성이 높음 ● 고유가의 지속은 인플레이션 압력의 확대, 중국 내 정유기업들의 수익성 감소, 그로 인한 국내 제품유 공급 부족 등으로 이어져 중국경제에 큰 위협이 되고 있으나, 중국의 원유 대외의존도가 상대적으로 낮다는 점을 감안하면 향후 중국경제의 침체 가능성은 크지 않을 전망 ● 최근 중국정부의 유류품 가격 인상에도 불구하고 정유업체에 지급하는 보조금의 규모가 확대되면서 국내외 가격 괴리 현상이 발생하는 동시에 국가 재정에 큰 부담이 되고 있는 상황 ● 중국의 제품유 가격 통제 정책과 유가에 대한 보조금 지급은 자원 배분을 왜곡시켜 중국경제의 장기적 성장을 저해하는 요인이 될 전망 ● 중국의 유가 자유화가 국제유가의 상승 압력을 완화시키는 동시에 중국 내 유류 공급부족 문제를 해결하는 해결책이 될 수 있음에도 불구하고, 올림픽 개최를 앞두고 사회 안정화를 최우선시하고 있는 중국정부는 가격개혁 혹은 유가의 대폭 인상에 대해 신중한 태도를 견지

▶ The Interrelation Between High Oil Price and China's Economy ● International oil prices have been rising at an accelerating pace since the beginning of this year. After breaking $100 per barrel in February, prices shot up to $140 within just 4 months. The surprisingly rapid rise in oil prices has led most economies, and the relatively immature developing economies in particular, to begin to falter in the face of a potential crisis. ● The current increase in oil prices differs from previous oil shocks in that it is mainly driven by imbalances in supply and demand. The rapid expansion of demand from emerging markets, and China and India in particular, has been blamed as one of the most important factors driving the current rise in international oil prices. ● Despite the slowing of the global economy, China has been able to maintain a high growth rate of over 10%, and in the near term, there is little likelihood that oil demand in China will fall. In fact, oil demand pressure in China is likely to increase in H2 due to Olympics-related construction and post-disaster reconstruction. In June, the Chinese government raised domestic prices for oil products by approximately 17%. ● As the dependency on international oil rises, China's economy will be severely impacted by surging prices for oil. Inflationary pressure is continuing to build, the shock to the refining industry is threatening the supply of petroleum products, and rising oil prices are threatening to accelerate the economic slowdown. ● However, in comparison to other emerging markets which have suffered a major shock due to rising oil prices, China has been relatively less affected thanks to its abundant substitute energy reserves, strong government finances, and the relatively low proportion that oil accounts for out of total energy consumption. ● At the same time, China is shouldering a hefty burden for its policy of limiting prices of domestic petroleum products. Under this policy, China subsidizes other countries with higher prices for exports of scarce resources, and the growing subsidies for the petrochemical industry is deteriorating the government's financial position. Although short-term inflationary pressure has been relieved, long-term inflation expectations are growing stronger. ● China must now liberalize prices for domestic oil products, or raise prices by a substantial margin. This would help drive down international oil prices and stimulate long-term growth. The market consensus is that a 50% increase in prices for China's petroleum products would avert a rise in international oil prices to $200 in the near term. ● However, in light of the upcoming Olympics, the Chinese government is being cautious on this issue and hopes to avoid economic losses, or a possible hard landing and social problems, that could result from an abrupt spike in oil prices. China is thus seeking a balance between long-term and short-term growth, and between global growth and its own development.