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China Economic Insight Series (30) : “양회”를 통해 본 2010년 중국 경제전략
2010-03-18동애영
목차
Watch Point
지속적인 경제 성장세 유지 對 유동성 과잉에 맞선 출구전략의 필요성간 딜레마에 빠져 있는 중국 거시 경제 정책의 향방을 가늠해볼 수 있는 중국 전인대가 최근 개최되어 세계의 이목이 집중
“양회”에서는 2010년 성장률 목표치를 작년과 동일한 8%로 설정하였으나 올해에는 성장구조 개선 등 성장의 “질”을 특히 강조. ’06∼’10년 5개년 계획의 중점과제였던 성장방식 전환과 관련, 5개년 계획의 마무리 단계인 올해야말로 실질적 성과를 얻기 위해 정부 노력 배가될 전망
또한 적극적 재정정책 기조 유지를 강조하였으나 재정지출 증가율은 대폭 축소될 전망이며, 주요 재정지출 대상도 지난해 공공 인프라 투자에서 농업, 민생, 사회보장 지출로 조정. 단 2008년 발표된 재정부양책 패키지 중 공공투자 잔여분 5,722억 위안은 계획대로 집행 예정
한편 통화정책 목표는 M2 증가율 17%와 신규대출 7.5조 위안으로 설정하여 완화 기조가 유지될 전망이나. 동시에 정책의 유연성 제고를 강조하여 출구전략 실시 필요성에 대한 공감 표시
이와 관련, 현재 금리 인상과 위안화 절상 시기에 관심이 집중되고 있는데 유동성 문제나 인플레 억제 측면에서는 금리인상이 바람직하나 성장모델 전환을 위해서는 위안화 절상 필요
종합적으로 판단할 때, “양회” 동안 시장이 기대했던 정책기조의 긴축 선회는 없었으나 출구전략의 필요성에 대한 공감대는 형성된 것으로 판단되며, 이와 함께 점차 부각되고 있는 2010년 중국 경제의 조정 가능성, 인플레 압력, 금융시스템 불안, 정부부채 문제 등 차이나 리스크에 주목할 필요
요약
지속적인 경제 성장세 유지 對 유동성 과잉에 맞선 출구전략의 필요성간 딜레마에 빠져 있는 중국 거시 경제 정책의 향방을 가늠해볼 수 있는 중국 전인대가 최근 개최되어 세계의 이목이 집중
“양회”에서는 2010년 성장률 목표치를 작년과 동일한 8%로 설정하였으나 올해에는 성장구조 개선 등 성장의 “질”을 특히 강조. ’06∼’10년 5개년 계획의 중점과제였던 성장방식 전환과 관련, 5개년 계획의 마무리 단계인 올해야말로 실질적 성과를 얻기 위해 정부 노력 배가될 전망
또한 적극적 재정정책 기조 유지를 강조하였으나 재정지출 증가율은 대폭 축소될 전망이며, 주요 재정지출 대상도 지난해 공공 인프라 투자에서 농업, 민생, 사회보장 지출로 조정. 단 2008년 발표된 재정부양책 패키지 중 공공투자 잔여분 5,722억 위안은 계획대로 집행 예정
한편 통화정책 목표는 M2 증가율 17%와 신규대출 7.5조 위안으로 설정하여 완화 기조가 유지될 전망이나. 동시에 정책의 유연성 제고를 강조하여 출구전략 실시 필요성에 대한 공감 표시
이와 관련, 현재 금리 인상과 위안화 절상 시기에 관심이 집중되고 있는데 유동성 문제나 인플레 억제 측면에서는 금리인상이 바람직하나 성장모델 전환을 위해서는 위안화 절상 필요
종합적으로 판단할 때, “양회” 동안 시장이 기대했던 정책기조의 긴축 선회는 없었으나 출구전략의 필요성에 대한 공감대는 형성된 것으로 판단되며, 이와 함께 점차 부각되고 있는 2010년 중국 경제의 조정 가능성, 인플레 압력, 금융시스템 불안, 정부부채 문제 등 차이나 리스크에 주목할 필요
Signs of China's 2010 Economic Policy Direction from the NPC
China currently faces a dilemma as it must curb excess liquidity with exit strategies while its economic recovery remains uncertain. The National People's Congress (NPC), which was held from March 3~14, is a major government event that provides clues into the direction of macroeconomic policies and thus attracts significant attention.
China's 2010 GDP growth target has been set at 8% (unchanged from 2009), but an emphasis was placed on raising the "quality" of economic growth by improving China's economic structure. While this was a goal of the 2006~2010 5-year plan, progress on this front has fallen short of expectations, and the government's efforts are likely to intensify since this is the last year of the 5-year plan.
Although fiscal policies will be maintained in 2010, the increase in the central government's budget is being reduced. Government expenditures are expected to rise 11.4% in 2010, far below the 20% recorded in 2009, and the central government budget will grow by 6.3% in 2010, down from 24.1% in 2009.
In addition the focus of government spending is shifting from public infrastructure to agriculture, welfare, and social security. However, 572 billion yuan remaining from the fiscal stimulus package that was passed in Dec. 2008 will be spent as planned.
Monetary policy will remain relatively loose with targets for M2 growth target at 17% and new loans at 7.5 trillion yuan. However, the need for a flexible monetary policy and the gradual implementation of exit strategies was also recognized.
In terms of tightening policies, bond rates and the policy rates have already been raised, and the remaining issues the timing and extent of rate hikes and the appreciation of the yuan. Although rate hikes would alleviate liquidity and inflation problems, yuan appreciation is necessary in order to revamp China's growth model.
Other issues that were raised at the NPC include the possibility of distributing personal accounts in 2010 to support the domestic market, and the need to adjust the fiscal structure to address the problem of provincial government debt.
Although the anticipated pivoting of China's economic policies did not materialize at the NPC, the need to gradually implement exit strategies was recognized. In addition, while the outlook for China's economy in 2010 is generally favorable, risk factors that warrant attention include the uncertainty of the economic recovery, inflation, financial system stability, and government debt.
China currently faces a dilemma as it must curb excess liquidity with exit strategies while its economic recovery remains uncertain. The National People's Congress (NPC), which was held from March 3~14, is a major government event that provides clues into the direction of macroeconomic policies and thus attracts significant attention.
China's 2010 GDP growth target has been set at 8% (unchanged from 2009), but an emphasis was placed on raising the "quality" of economic growth by improving China's economic structure. While this was a goal of the 2006~2010 5-year plan, progress on this front has fallen short of expectations, and the government's efforts are likely to intensify since this is the last year of the 5-year plan.
Although fiscal policies will be maintained in 2010, the increase in the central government's budget is being reduced. Government expenditures are expected to rise 11.4% in 2010, far below the 20% recorded in 2009, and the central government budget will grow by 6.3% in 2010, down from 24.1% in 2009.
In addition the focus of government spending is shifting from public infrastructure to agriculture, welfare, and social security. However, 572 billion yuan remaining from the fiscal stimulus package that was passed in Dec. 2008 will be spent as planned.
Monetary policy will remain relatively loose with targets for M2 growth target at 17% and new loans at 7.5 trillion yuan. However, the need for a flexible monetary policy and the gradual implementation of exit strategies was also recognized.
In terms of tightening policies, bond rates and the policy rates have already been raised, and the remaining issues the timing and extent of rate hikes and the appreciation of the yuan. Although rate hikes would alleviate liquidity and inflation problems, yuan appreciation is necessary in order to revamp China's growth model.
Other issues that were raised at the NPC include the possibility of distributing personal accounts in 2010 to support the domestic market, and the need to adjust the fiscal structure to address the problem of provincial government debt.
Although the anticipated pivoting of China's economic policies did not materialize at the NPC, the need to gradually implement exit strategies was recognized. In addition, while the outlook for China's economy in 2010 is generally favorable, risk factors that warrant attention include the uncertainty of the economic recovery, inflation, financial system stability, and government debt.