하나은행 하나금융연구소

■ 글로벌 신용경색으로 전 세계 대부분의 금융기관들이 손실을 입은 가운데 투자은행들보다 글로벌 유니버설 은행들은 상대적으로 양호한 실적 기록 ● 유니버설 은행들은 트레이딩 등 투자은행 부문에서 손실을 입었으나, 소비자 및 소매금융 부분에서 수익을 창출해 전반적인 수익성 유지 ● 2008년 2/4분기 글로벌 금융기관들의 자금조달 확대로 Tier 1과 BIS비율은 회복세를 나타냈으나, 추가적인 자산 상각으로 건전성 하락 및 추가 자금조달 필요성 제기 ■ 유니버설 은행들은 직접적인 서브프라임 영향으로부터 점진적으로 벗어나고 있지만, 그 여파가 프라임 모기지, 신용카드 등 여타 부분으로 확산되며, 건전성 및 수익성이 악화되고 있는 상황 ● Citigroup은 여전히 적자를 기록하고 있으나 점차 수익성 개선단계 진입 중 ● 양호한 실적에도 불구하고, JPMorgan Chase의 리스크는 서브프라임 모기지가 아닌 프라임 모기지 부문에서 출현 ● Wells Fargo는 기대를 상회하는 실적을 기록하며 배당금 지급액을 상향 조정 ● UBS는 순손실을 기록했으며, IB와 WM 부문의 통합과 관련된 구조조정 계획이 진행 중 ● 수익 하락에도 불구, HSBC는 견실한 흑자세를 지속하고 있으며 동종업계 경쟁자들에 비해 상대적으로 양호한 상황 ■ 전망 및 시사점 ● 글로벌 은행들은 상각과 관련해 새로운 국면에 접어들었고 모기지와 관련된 증권의 익스포저를 지속적으로 관리하는 모습 ● 주요 독립 투자은행들의 붕괴에 따라 유니버설 은행들은 상업 및 투자은행업 양 부문을 독식할 전망이며, 이들 은행들은 변동성이 높은 투자은행업 수수료에 치중하는 영업전략은 피해야 할 것임 ● 하지만, 유니버설 은행들은 글로벌 금융시장 전망이 변화함에 따라 사업전략을 수정할 필요성이 확대되고 있으며, 해외와 국내부문 간, 그리고 상업 및 투자은행 부문 간 균형을 맞출 필요

■ The subprime crisis has damaged all financial firms, but global universal banks are proving to be more resilient than stand-alone investment banks ● Universal banks have been able to offset trading losses with earnings from consumer and retail banking, and diversification of business lines has been an advantage so far. ● Banks differ in terms of business mix and geographic expansion, resulting in a wide variation in performance, and contrary to conventional wisdom, a conservative focus on domestic commercial banking activities has produced better performance. ● Capital raising by banks has led to improvements in Tier 1 and Total BIS ratios, but additional writedowns could deplete capital cushions once more and result in additional bank failures. ■ Problems are emerging in areas unrelated to subprime mortgages, such as deteriorating asset quality in traditional lending portfolios ● Citigroup recorded a third consecutive quarterly loss ($9.8 bn in 4Q07, $5.1 bn in 1Q08 and $2.5bn in 2Q08) but the size of its losses have narrowed, which suggests it is on the road to recovery. ● JPMorgan Chase recorded net income of $2.0 bn in 2Q08 and its investment banking division swung back into the black. However, in a development with troubling implications for the rest of the industry, the firm saw rising chargeoffs in its traditional lending portfolio, including prime mortgages, and is expecting further deterioration in asset quality. ● Wells Fargo recorded net income of $1.75bn in 2Q08, a decline of 23% YoY but above analyst expectations. In addition, it increased its dividend by roughly 10% in a show of confidence that sent its stock price surging by 33%, pushing Wells Fargo into third place in the U.S. banking sector by market capitalization. ● UBS posted a net loss of $329 mn in 2Q08, which was larger than analysts had been expecting and a sharp contrast to its own forecast of flat results. More disturbingly, reputational damage is beginning to impact the firm's wealth management business, and net outflows of client assets were recorded for the quarter. ● HSBC recorded net profit of $7.7 bn for 1H08, a decline of 29% YoY and the steepest fall in profits in 7 years. Although its U.S. mortgage business has been HSBC's biggest problem so far, the bank warned that growth in emerging markets, which account for 50% of pre-tax profits, would be under pressure from inflation for the rest of the year. ■ Banks face a new wave of writedowns and continue to hold significant exposure to mortgage-related securities ● Although the wave of writedowns seems to have crested, the continuing housing slump and economic slowdown are continuing to damage the value of mortgage-related securities as delinquencies and defaults on prime mortgages rise, which could force financial firms to take additional writedowns this year. ● Despite significant writedowns, assets classified as Level 3 at major financial institutions remain at high levels as formerly Level 2 assets become reclassified as Level 3. Among the U.S. banks, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase are most at risk as their Level 3 assets are the highest both in terms of amount and proportion of total assets. ● All of the major independent U.S. investment banks have collapsed, been acquired by universal banks, or are preparing to become universal banks, thus setting the stage for both the market for both commercial and investment banking to be dominated by universal banks. ● In the crisis so far, the major financial institutions that have been able to survive have been diversified both in terms of geographic scope and business mix, although the specific degree of focus for each bank has differed. ● As the landscape of the financial industry changes, the major banks will need to decide which areas they wish to focus on, which strengths they can most effectively leverage and in which areas they wish to augment their capabilities. ● After pursuing a strategy of unbridled pursuit of universality, Citigroup is in the process of narrowing its focus by divesting non-strategic assets and business divisions. ● Meanwhile, banks such as JPMorgan Chase have recently become more universal as their activities have expanded following sizeable acquisitions. ● Although investment banking activities can be extremely lucrative, and commercial banking may seem to offer comparatively fewer growth and earnings potential, Wells Fargo and HSBC offer examples of steady and prudent commercial banking growth ● JPMC has successfully combined investment and commercial banking, and unlike Citigroup, maintained prudent risk management, enabling it to avoid the worst shocks of the crisis so far.