하나은행 하나금융연구소

▶ 과잉 유동성에 따른 긴축통화정책으로의 선회 가능성? 작년 말 중국정부의 대출규제 완화 조치 이후 1/4분기 중국 은행권의 신규대출 규모가 월평균 20% 대의 높은 증가율을 기록한 가운데 M2 증가율도 동반 상승하면서 과잉유동성 우려가 제기 최근 유동성 지표가 2009년 통화정책 목표치를 크게 상회하는 수준을 보이면서 은행권 대출 부실화 및 자산 인플레 재발 리스크가 부각되며 긴축통화정책으로의 기조 선회 가능성에 관심이 집중 1/4분기 신규대출은 차후 착공될 중앙정부의 대규모 투자프로젝트 부문에 주로 집중되었는데 이 같은 사전대출이 대부분 마무리되면서 더 이상의 대출확대 여지는 크지 않은 상황 특히 대출 증가의 계절적 특성, 기업의 투자의욕 저하, 은행의 기업어음 업무 자제 움직임 등을 감안하면 향후 신규대출이 1/4분기와 같은 속도로 늘어날 가능성은 높지 않은 것으로 판단되는 가운데 실제 4월 신규대출이 큰 폭으로 축소되면서 대출 규모가 정상 수준으로 회귀하기 시작한 것으로 분석 유동성 확대에 따른 자산인플레 우려에도 불구하고 실물경제 회복에 미치는 효과가 미약한 상황이 지속되면서 본격적인 경기회복에 대한 판단이 어려워 당분간은 확대통화정책 기조가 유지될 전망 한편, 최근 인민은행은 통화증가 및 대출확대가 경기부양에 긍정적인 영향을 미치고 있다는 입장 을 표명하면서 유동성 확대를 통한 경기부양노력 및 통화정책의 일관성 유지를 강조 따라서 올해 중 통화정책이 긴축기조로 급선회할 가능성은 상당히 낮은 것으로 판단되는 가운데 유동성 완화 및 경기회복 정도에 따라 미세조정을 통한 유동성 조절 조치가 병행될 것으로 예상

▶ Will monetary policy begin to tighten? □ Rapid loan growth during 1Q has raised concerns about excess liquidity China's monetary policy has been easing since 4Q 2008, and bank loan growth exceeded 20% in 1Q 2009, resulting in M2 growth rising to 26% in April. In light of the economic slowdown and declining prices, liquidity is now excessive, which has raised concerns that the real estate and stock market bubbles could being to reflate. □ Bank loan growth is unlikely to continue accelerating The proportion of mid-to-long term loans among new bank loans has been increasing significantly since most new loans are aimed at supporting the central government's investment projects (infrastructure construction) which are scheduled to begin this year. As the majority of central government investment projects have met their financing needs, there is limited scope for further expansion of commercial bank loans. Also, weakness in corporate investment in the private sector, seasonal factors for bank loan growth, and adjustments made by banks in their loan portfolio to reduce bill financing suggest that rapid growth of bank loans is unlikely to be sustained. □ The asset market does not show signs of a bubble Although transaction volumes for commercial buildings rebounded in 1Q09, real estate prices will be under pressure for several quarters due to the building inventory backlog, making a bubble unlikely. China's stock market has been rising since the beginning of the year and was up by nearly 40% YTD at end-April. Although the rally has been supported by ample market liquidity, the key driver has been expectations of an economic recovery. In addition, the PE ratio is currently around 20x, which is low by historical standards, making it unlikely that the market is overvalued. □ Government policy is unlikely to tighten given the uncertainty of the economic recovery, but fine-tuning is expected Signs of an economic recovery are becoming visible as leading indicators continue to improve. However, uncertainties remain, including whether a recovery driven mainly by government investment can be sustained, and whether investment in the private sector investment and private consumption can be stimulated. In addition, persistent deflationary pressures make it unlikely that government policy will shift to tightening measures, such as bank loan controls and interest rate hikes. However, some degree of fine-tuning can be expected.