하나은행 하나금융연구소

▶ 3월 중국 경제금융 정보 중 외화자산 어디로? : 미 국채공급 증가와 대규모 재정적자 전망에 따른 국채 금리 상승과 달러가 치 리스크가 높아짐에 따라 중 외화자산 가치 하락 우려 조짐. 최근 들어 중국이 미 국채에 대한 투 자 비중을 증가시키는 경향이 보이면서 동시에 외화자산 관리체계 개혁에 대한 방안 모색중 4조위안 투자계획의 집행 상황 : 중 2009년 경제성장의 저울추인 4조위안의 투자계획은 전인대에서 다시 관심이 집중되었으며, 투자방향 미세조정 및 주요 자금출처 방안이 제시됨. 조사에 따르면 투자 프로젝트가 예상보다 빠르게 진행되고 있으며, 2/4분기 신규투자 시행에 집중되고 또한 투자 프로젝 트는 중서부 지역에 현저히 편중되는 상황 상업은행의 금리자율화 추진 가속화 : 3월 중 중국인민은행 총재는 상업은행의 대출금리 하한변 동 범위 확대를 고려중임을 밝혔으며, 현행 기준금리의 0.9배에서 0.8배 혹은 0.7배로 확대 가능 함에 따라 현재 중국 상업은행의 2.5%∼3%의 예대금리차 축소가 불가피하여 대다수 은행, 특 히 비이자업무 비중이 상대적으로 낮은 은행의 피해가 클 것으로 예상 최근 중국 경제지표 Review : 예상을 상회하는 속도로 급격히 감소하는 수출과 지속적으로 둔화 되고 있는 산업생산 지수를 감안하면 2009년 1/4분기에도 성장률의 추가적인 위축 불가피하나 정부 정책효과에 힘입어 중국경제 반등 조짐 부상

▶ China Economy and Finance - March Update □ Management of China's foreign assets Rising U.S. Treasury rates and a depreciating dollar are becoming increasingly likely due to surging treasury bond issuance and the massive U.S. budget deficit. This poses a significant challenge for China, the largest holder of U.S. treasury bonds, in managing its foreign assets. According to estimates from the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations, China's portfolio of foreign assets was over $2.3 trillion at the end of 2008. This includes $1.95 trillion of disclosed foreign exchange reserves (SAFE) and dollar reserves account for 72% of the total. China is now reallocating its foreign asset portfolio by shifting its holdings to short-term Treasury notes and searching for new ways to improve the management of its foreign assets. These efforts may include sovereign loans to countries with abundant natural resources and support for private enterprises through foreign trade financing. □ Survey on the implementation of the 4 trillion yuan investment stimulus plan The government's 4 trillion yuan investment stimulus plan became a key issue during the NPC in March, since the efficiency of the plan's implementation, the allocation of funds, and the timing of projects will affect macroeconomic growth, investment opportunities and regional development. During the NPC, the investment plans were adjusted to provide greater support for domestic consumption growth and a plan for funding the investments was proposed. According to the survey, investment project are starting faster than expected, a large number of projects will be concentrated in 2Q, and investment is focused on the central and western regions. □ Progress on interest rate liberalization During the NPC, the Chief of the PBoC disclosed that it is considering allowing rates for commercial bank loans to float. Rates on bank loans are currently held at 0.9x the base rate, but may be permitted to float in the rage of 0.7x~0.8x the base rate. This will be a significant challenge for commercial banks which have a high dependency on traditional lending activities. □ Current economic review for China Considering the rapid contraction in exports (-25.7% YoY in February) and slowing industrial production (3.8% YoY), economic growth in 1Q 2009 is expected to continue to trend downward from the 6.8% YoY recorded in 4Q 2008. However, the government's massive stimulus package is being implemented, and leading economic indices such as the PMI index, real estate transaction volume and liquidity indicies, have been improving, which suggests that a recovery is possible in 2Q.