하나은행 하나금융연구소

▶ 대량 외자 유출입으로 인한 중국發 금융위기 가능성 ● 자산가격의 급상승세에 힘입어 주식 및 부동산 시장을 중심으로 단기투기자본의 유입세가 두드러지고 있으며, 최근 중·미 금리 차 역전과 위안화 절상 기대까지 맞물리면서 단기자본 유입이 증가할 가능성은 더욱 높아지고 있음 ● 대량 외자 유입으로 인한 유동성 과잉에 따른 자산 부문에서의 인플레이션 압력은 점차 실물 부문으로 확산되고 있는 상황임 ● 정책 운용 여지가 위축됨으로 인해 중국 정부는 물가에 대한 직접적 통제, 대출 통제 등의 행정적 수단을 사용하고는 있으나 정책의 효과를 제대로 파악하기는 쉽지 않은 실정 ● 대내외 경제불안이 심화됨에 따라 대량의 자금이탈 리스크는 중국 금융시장의 안정성을 위협 하는 요인으로 등장할 전망 ● 대출 리스크 관리 부실과 함께 부동산 가격이 하락하는 경우, 부동산담보대출이 부실화되어 신용위기가 발생할 가능성 존재 ● 현재 중국 정부는 금융위기 방지를 위해 외환관리감독 및 리스크관리 시스템 강화 계획을 적극적으로 진행 중에 있음 ● 중국금융위기의 현실화 가능성은 제한적인 것으로 보이나 만약의 상황에 대비한 국내 금융기관들의 사전 대비책 마련이 필요

▶ Large foreign capital flows raise the possibility of a financial crisis ● Due to rapidly rising asset prices, 2007 saw sizeable short-term foreign capital flows into the Chinese market. The widening of the gap between Chinese and US interest rates is expected to exacerbate the problem. ● To prevent a rapid appreciation of the yuan, the central bank must inject additional yuan currency into the market to absorb its massive foreign reserves, which are a result of a "Double surplus" in both the current account and capital account following the flood of exports and capital inflows. ● Therefore, the increase in the supply of money has inevitably led to excess liquidity. In pursuit of high returns, the excess liquidity has flowed into the equity and real estate markets, which has driven asset prices higher. Since the second half of 2007, a trend of liquidity diffusing into other sectors has emerged, which has resulted in overall inflationary pressure. ● The market-oriented monetary policy that the Chinese government is currently implementing now faces a significant challenge. The government must use more administrative measures, such as direct controls on prices and loans, rather than the market-oriented measures that are now proving to be difficult to master. ● We have identified two factors that raise the risk of a financial crisis in China. 1) Due to the deteriorating financial health of the major global investment banks and the increasing internal and external risks to the Chinese economy, a sudden and rapid outflow of foreign capital from the Chinese market is a possibility. 2) As real estate prices begin to trend downwards, real estate loans from banks will become riskier due to continuous interest rate hikes and the absence of a customer credit assessment system, thus threatening the stability of the banking system. ● The government has recognized these risks and measures such as strict controls on foreign exchange and quality management of bank loans are being actively implemented to prevent a financial crisis. ● In light of the increasing risks which could trigger a financial crisis in China, it is necessary for global financial institutions to make preparations to deal with such an event.