하나은행 하나금융연구소

▶ 1월 중국 경제금융 정보 2009년 구조조정으로 인한 M&A 시장의 투자기회 부상 : 비유통주 해제에 따른 유통시장 구조 자유화, 증시 저평가 및 정부 주도의 기업?산업 구조조정 등이 M&A 시장에 호재로 작용하며 구조조정 관련 M&A 시장이 활발해질 가능성이 높음 농민공 실업 심화: 중국 동남연해 도시의 실업으로 인해 1월 중 농민공 실업자는 2,600만명을 기록하 면서 농민공의 대규모 실업 및 귀향이 사회?경제에 미치는 부정적 영향에 대한 우려 대두. 이 문제에 대한 해결책으로 중국의 도시화를 가속시키자는 의견이 있으나, 단기간내 해결되기는 어려운 상황 철강?자동차 구조조정 위주의 산업진흥계획 발표: 1월 중국은 철강 및 자동차산업 산업 조정진 흥계획을 통과시켰으며, 3월 “양회”전에 10대 핵심산업의 진흥책을 모두 발표 예정. 한편 산업정 책의 단기적 효과에는 한계가 있으나 , 정기적인 산업구조조정 측면에서는 긍정적일 것으로 판단 2008년 4/4분기 중국경제 급격한 둔화: 2008년 4/4분기 경제 성장률은 전분기 9%에서 6.8%로 급 격히 둔화되면서 연간 9%의 성장을 기록. 대외여건 악화로 인해 수출이 위축되고 있는 데다, 부동산 시장 부진에 따른 고정투자 둔화 및 소비둔화 압력 증대 등의 내수 위축도 본격화 되면서 경제성장 급랭

□ Opportunities are growing in the restructuring related M&A market Although M&A activity has fallen in 2H 2008, the market currently has low valuations and is being restructured as limitations on non-traded shares are lifted. In addition, the government is restructuring state-owned enterprises and has introduced a variety of industry focused policies. As a result, the M&A market is expected to pick up in 2009. At the same time, restrictions on bank loans to the M&A sector have been removed and commercial banks are considering various methods of entering the M&A financing market. Foreign banks are focusing on entering the M&A financing business through participation in private equity deals. □ Unemployment of migrant rural workers is being exacerbated Up to 26 million migrant rural workers have lost their jobs as a result of the economic downturn, and the situation is becoming a threat to China's economy and social stability. In contrast to urban workers, there is virtually no social safety net for migrant rural workers, which creates an untenable situation for them following the loss of a job. The government has warned that rising unemployment of migrant rural workers could fuel social unrest. In addition, large numbers of unemployed migrant rural workers have returned to their home regions, which is exacerbating the imbalance in supply and demand for land. This poses a serious threat to the expansion of domestic consumption, and is likely to further weaken the economy. □ The government has unveiled an industry-focused stimulus package On January 14, the Chinese government passed a stimulus package for the auto and steel industries, and additional stimulus packages focused on other key industries are scheduled to be released before the NPC in March. This indicates that China is beginning a fresh round of stimulus policies focused on industry. In the near term, the auto and steel stimulus package is unlikely to have visible effects, but it could provide significant support for the long-term growth of these industries through restructuring. □ The Chinese economy slowed sharply in 4Q 2008 In 4Q 2008, China's economic growth slowed sharply to 6.8%, down from 9% in 3Q. Although a wide variety of unfavorable factors had an effect, the deterioration in exports was the key reason for the abrupt slowdown in growth. At the same time, domestic demand is also coming under pressure due to the weakness in the real estate sector and deteriorating employment conditions.