하나은행 하나금융연구소

▶ 하향 조정기로 접어든 중국의 부동산 시장 ● 중국의 주요 대도시를 중심으로 부동산 가격 및 거래규모가 급락하고 공실률이 상승하는 등 전반적인 부동산 시장이 침체 국면에 접어들고 있는 가운데, 부동산 경기지수도 9개월 연속 하락세를 기록하며 향후 부동산 경기의 불투명한 전망을 반영 ● 중국의 과열성장에 따른 풍부한 시중 유동성이 최근 2년 간 부동산 시장으로 대량 유입되면서 신규주택시장을 중심으로 단기간 내 부동산 버블이 형성되었으며, 이 과정에서 주택시장 가격 설정 주도권을 가진 부동산 개발기업들이 버블 확대를 부추기는 역할 ● 글로벌 금융시장 불안 심화에 따라 중국경제의 둔화세가 가시화되는 상황에서 중국 내 실질임금 상승률 하락으로 주택에 대한 실수요 및 투자수요 양자 모두 크게 위축되는 현상 발생 ● 또한 주식시장 폭락과 함께 부동산 개발기업에 대한 은행대출 억제정책이 강화되어 개발업체들의 자금난이 가중되면서 주택판매를 위한 가격 인하 가능성이 제기되고 있으며, 이로 인해 부동산 가격 하방 리스크 확대 ● 부동산 버블 해소, 글로벌 금융위기의 진행 등으로 하강국면에 진입한 중국의 부동산 경기는 실물경제의 둔화와 맞물리면서 상당 기간 하락세를 지속할 수 밖에 없는 상황 ● 부동산 시장의 향방에 따라 내년도 중국의 경제성장이 크게 좌우될 것이라는 점을 인식하고 있는 중국정부가 상황에 따라 적절한 부양책을 실시하여 시장의 점진적인 하락세를 유도할 가능성이 높아 부동산 시장의 경착륙 우려는 현실화되지 않을 전망

▶ The Chinese real estate market has entered a downward correction ■ Current trends in the Chinese real estate market ● The Chinese real estate market slowed in general after several years of rapid growth. Transaction volumes declined rapidly, falling short of the previous year's level, real estate price appreciation had slowed to 5% nationwide by midyear, and home prices in several large cities have begun to fall by an even greater amount. ● Public interest is rising as to whether home prices will continue to decline, whether a bubble exists in the real estate market, whether that bubble will burst, and what the impact on the overall economy will be. ■ Creation of a bubble in the real estate market ● The high level of home prices in comparison to personal income and rental rates suggests that a bubble exists in several large cities, which have recorded 2 years of abnormally high growth. ● From 2006∼2007, liquidity growth remained at a high level, and large amounts of excess liquidity flowed into the stock market and the real estate market in pursuit of high returns. The abundant liquidity has fueled the formation of bubbles in both markets. ● The market for pre-owned homes remains undeveloped, and the lack of transparency in market information has reinforced the dominance of real estate development firms in the pricing process, thus providing them with an environment conducive to manipulation of home prices. ● Lenient government measures and inefficient policies stemming from the conflict of interest between the central and local governments have also contributed to the formation of a bubble. ■ The burgeoning real estate bubble and deteriorating economic conditions are they main factors underlying the recent market weakness ● The continuous rise in home prices has posed a significant challenge to home seekers, and has also insulated investors in the residential market from decreasing rental rates. ● Foreign and domestic economic conditions began to deteriorate in 2H07, which has had a negative impact on the real estate market. Expectations on real estate investment are being adjusted downward, real purchasing power is weakening, and real estate development firms face cash flow problems due to declining transaction volumes and tightening measures by the government. These factors have driven the recent weakness in the real estate market. ● In addition, several foreign financial institutions have began to divest their property projects in Shanghai, which has exacerbated fears in the market and accelerated the market's decline. ■ The downward correction is expected to continue for the next 1∼2 years ● Home prices in major cities are expected to decline further, which suggests a high likelihood of a bubble bursting in those areas. ● However, prices in other regions have risen at a reasonable rate over the past several years. stable demand in these areas will limit any downward price adjustments, which will help support prices for the Chinese real estate market as a whole. ● The current decline in the real estate market is a normal reaction to the slowdown in the economy. With the Chinese economy entering a down-cycle, weakness in the real estate market is likely to continue for the next 1~2 years. ● The Chinese real estate market can recovery quickly due to its massive growth potential if home prices stabilize and the domestic economy shows signs of recovery. Statistics show that only 15% of households have purchased a house in the past 10 years. This implies that most families are still living in old houses that are in poor condition, and that residential demand in China has ample potential for growth in the long run. ■ Effects of the deteriorating real estate market on the macroeconomy ● Conditions in the real estate market will have a significant impact on fixed investment, which has historically been a major driver of economy growth. ● Declining real estate prices will lead to deterioration of asset quality for commercial banks, and the resultant increase in LTV ratios will make financial institutions less willing to lend. The potential tightening of liquidity will have a negative impact on the economy. ● The real estate market will be the most significant downside risk to the Chinese economy over the coming year. Even if the downward adjustment in the real estate market is moderate and the government implements measures to cushion the economy, a hard landing in both the economy and the real estate market remain a distinct possibility.