금융시장
QE종료이후 금융시장 환경변화와 시사점
2011-10-10김완중
목차
요약
QE2 종료 전후의 글로벌 경제 및 금융시장 동향
美경기둔화 우려 및 유럽 재정위기 확산 가능성 등으로 글로벌 경기둔화 우려
-미국 경제는 시장의 예상을 하회하는 GDP 성장률과 고용, 가계소비, 주택수요 등 경제지표 부진으로 경
기둔화 가능성이 부각된 상황이며 美연준은 2013년 중반까지 제로금리를 유지하기로 결정
-유럽 재정위기는 7월 들어 그리스 구제금융 합의 지연으로 스페인 및 이탈리아 등으로 확산되는 모습이
며 성장률 둔화와 선행지수 하락 등 유로존 경기 하강이 나타나고 있음
경기회복과 함께 신흥국 금융시장으로 유입되던 글로벌 자금이 최근 금융불안으로 큰 폭의 이탈
-2011년초 미국 경기회복 기대와 유럽 재정위기 완화 가능성으로 주요 선진국 국채금리가 상승했으나 7
월 이후 금융불안 확산으로 주요 선진국 국채 금리는 하락한 반면 유럽 위기국의 국채 금리는 급등
-한편 위기 극복과정에서 공급된 유동성이 신흥국 주식 및 채권 시장, 국제 원자재 시장으로 유입되며 가
격변수의 상승세가 이어졌으며 이에 따라 글로벌 자금이탈 시 금융시장 변동성 확대될 우려가 커진 상황
美신용등급 강등 이후 미국 국채 시장
美신용등급 강등 이후 미국채의 위상은 하락했으나 미국채를 대체할 자산은 부재
-美부채한도 증액에도 불구하고 재정불안 지속으로 美신용등급은 강등되었으며 금융거래의 기준으로 활
용되는 미국 국채의 위상 하락은 글로벌 금융시장의 불확실성을 확대
-美신용등급 강등에도 불구하고 미국 국채를 대체할 만한 자산이 없다는 점에서 해외 부문 및 미국 내
금융기관들의 미국채 경쟁적 매각 가능성은 낮음
미국채의 완만한 매도 시 금융불안이 경기회복세 둔화로 이어질 가능성
-미국의 신용위험 상승에 따른 국채 매도와 금리 급등 시 일시적인 자금경색과 투자손실이 발생하고 경기
회복이 둔화
-한편 가능성은 낮지만 외환보유고 다변화 차원의 미국채의 경쟁적 매도 시 달러가치 급락과 금리 급등에
따른 금융시장 불안과 실물경기 침체 간에 악순환의 고리가 형성될 가능성 존재
(본문에 계속...)
Global Economic and Financial Market Trends after QE2
Concerns over economic slowdown in the US and spread of European fiscal crisis into a wider region may slow down the global economy
● The US economy is faced with potential slowdown spurred by sluggish economic activities including GDP growth, employment, household consumption and housing demand which all stood at a lower level than the market expected. The Fed decided to keep its benchmark interest rate at near zero until mid-2013
● The fiscal crisis in Europe has further spread into Spain and Italy in July owing to delayed progress in agreement to bail out Greece, heralding a slowdown in the euro zone as evidenced by sluggish growth and falling leading indicators
Investors are now pulling their money on a massive scale out of emerging markets which enjoyed global fund inflow in the wake of recovery
● Despite government bond yield hikes in major advanced economies, fueled by expectations for the US economic recovery and subdued European fiscal crisis early 2011, the yields fell in leadng advanced economies due to more financial instability since July while those of EU members with fiscal difficulties soared
● At the same time, liquidity supply during recovery flew into stock and bond markets in emerging economies as well as global commodity markets, putting upward pressure on prices, which in turn may cause higher volatility in the financial market in case of global capital fligh
US Treasury Bond Market after Its Sovereign Rating Downgrade
The downgrade weakened the status of US treasury bond, but there are no alternative options
● The US witnessed its credit rating downgraded owing to persistent fiscal concerns despite the Congressional agreement to raise the nation's debt ceiling, and the weakened status of US treasury bond, a benchmark for financial transactions, further aggravated uncertainties surrounding the global financial market
● However, despite the downgrade, chances are slim that financial institutions in and out of the US will rush to sell off treasury bonds, given that there are no alternative options
US treasury bond sell-off at slow pace may lead financial instability to slow down
recovery
● Treasury bond sell-off and interest rate hike, affected by higher credit risk of the US, will cause temporary capital crunch and investment loss, as well as slowdown of economic recovery
● Although unlikely, competitive sell-off as a part of foreign reserves diversification strategy may create a vicious circle of plunging dollar and interest rate hike, financial market instability, and sluggish real economy
Financial Instability : Future Course and Expected Impacts
Concerns for a US double-dip and little progress in policy coordination in Europe fueled global financial uncertainties since August
● Few policy measures are available, considering burdens for implementing additional quantitative easing by the Fed and inevitable austerity measures by the US government
● As lack of consistent policy coordination to deal with European fiscal crisis heightened the risk of contagion to other economies in the region, large-scale European financial institutions with exposure to countries in crisis may face higher risk of credit crunch
The following three scenarios can be drawn depending on whether regional coordination efforts can be resumed in Europe and the US stimulus package will be effective
● Baseline Scenario : more agreements between European leaders and effective implementation of the US stimulus may ease external instability and help the Korean economy to soft land
● Bad Scenario : persistent fiscal concerns in the euro zone and ineffective US stimulus package may result in temporary liquidity crunch and another dip for the US economy, which will again fuel significant slowdown of the Korean economy and foreign reserves liquidity crisis
● Worst Scenario : fiscal crisis spreading into Italy and France may threaten EMU, and botched implementation of additional stimulus in the US will aggravate global financial instability, leading the Korean economy to suffer a significant drop in exports
Foreign Portfolio Investment Trends and Foreign Currency Liquidity Conditions
Foreign capital started to flow in again after the financial crisis to benefit from rapid economic recovery, undervalued stock market and potential currency gains
● The inflow, however, slowed down owing to sluggish stock market in emerging economies and capital in/outflow regulation, and sizable foreign capital flight was observed in the stock market in August, which was driven by concerns for US economic slowdown and fiscal crisis in the euro zone, fueling financial instability in the local market here in Korea
● In the wake of the global financial crisis, foreign investment in bonds continued to grow, affected by prospect of stronger won, arbitrage opportunities and foreign exchange reserves diversification of central banks in emerging economies, with growing investment in long-term government bonds, in particular
● Foreign investment in bonds is likely to keep growing, with renewed pressure on won appreciation and rising demand for non-dollar-denominated assets expected when financial instability is lessened
Foreign currency liquidity is deemed good enough, given foreign currency reserves, short-term external debt ratio and current account surplus
● Still, there is a possibility that Korea may face greater risk in foreign currency liquidity when foreign portfolio investors start to pull their money amid worsening external conditions and European financial institutions redeem their investment in response to more severe liquidity crunch
Recommended Responses to Financial Instability by Financial Institutions and Government
Tighter monitoring is required on developments of the crisis and its triggering factors (e.g. US economic indicators, government bond maturity schedule of countries with fiscal difficulties, etc.)
● Moreover, the government needs to focus on managing soundness of economic players to ensure financial stability by way of enhancing policy credibility, raising sovereign credit rating, and formulating crisis management plans with diverse impact sources and scenarios taken into account
● For the financial institutions' part, they should tightly monitor risk factors including economic and market interest rate trends in order to be better prepared against growing volatility in the financial market, while diversifying financing structure and ensuring sound investment management
Ⅰ. 연구 배경
Ⅱ. QE2 종료 전후의 글로벌 경제 및 금융시장 환경
Ⅲ. 美신용등급 강등과 유럽 재정위기
Ⅳ. 금융불안의 전개방향과 영향
Ⅴ. 외국인 포트폴리오 투자와 외화 유동성 문제
Ⅵ. 향후 대응방안