하나은행 하나금융연구소

▶ 최근 기축통화 논란과 위안화의 국제화 가속 최근 달러화 가치 하락으로 현행 국제통화체제의 안정성에 대한 우려가 제기되는 가운데 중국당국 은 IMF의 SDR(특별인출권)을 신기축통화로 하는 Super-sovereign Reserve Currency 체제로의 개혁을 강하게 주장 그러나 SDR이 기축통화로 자리 잡기 위해서는 SDR의 거래 수단 및 가치 평가 단위로서의 기능 확보 및 글로벌 금융시장에서 SDR 표시 자산 비중의 대폭적인 확대가 필요하나 이를 실현하는 데 에는 장기간의 많은 어려움이 있을 것으로 예상 한편, 중국의 대외무역에서 위안화의 결제통화로서의 역할은 점차 확대되고 있는 추세이나 주로 동남아시아 등 주변국과의 국경무역에만 한정되어 있고 금융거래 및 준비통화 등의 측면에서는 위 안화의 국제화 수준이 상대적으로 낮은 상황 이에 따라 중국 당국은 국제무역 거래시 결제통화로서의 위안화 허용범위 확대, 신흥개발국과 통화 스왑 체결, 위안화 표시 국제채권 발행 계획 등 아시아 지역을 기반으로 위안화 국제화 추진 가속화 달러화의 기축통화 지위를 대체할만한 통화가 아직 없다는 점에서 당분간 국제통화체제의 전환은 어려울 것으로 판단되나 중국경제의 발전에 따른 중국의 발언권과 영향력 확대를 감안하면 위안화의 미래 글로벌 기축통화 가능성을 배제할 수만은 없을 것으로 보임 특히, 중국경제의 부상에 힘입어 베이징 컨센서스를 중심으로 개도국들의 결집이 이루어지고 있는 가운데 위안화의 신흥시장과 아시아 역내에서의 급속한 영향력 확대 기대가 가능

▶ The recent debate over a new reserve currency and the accelerating internationalization of the RMB □ Background on the dollar's status as the dominant reserve currency The U.S. is undertaking quantitative easing as part of its monetary policy to stimulate the domestic economy in response to the deepening recession. This, along with the rapid expansion of the fiscal deficit and collapse of U.S. consumption-driven economic growth, has resulted in a weakening dollar and is undermining confidence in the dollar. Meanwhile, China has recently suggested reforming the international monetary system, which is currently dominated by the dollar, and has also accelerated the internationalization of the RMB in various ways. As a result, the debate is intensifying over whether the dollar will lose its status as the world's primary reserve currency, the feasibility of various substitutions for the dollar, and the possibility of the RMB replacing the dollar. □ Feasibility of a super-sovereign reserve currency system, as suggested by China, substituting for the dollar The governor of China's central bank, has suggested creating a "super-sovereign reserve currency" to replace the dollar over the long run and in the short run, enhancing the global role of SDRs, the international asset created by the IMF in the late 1960s. Given the limitations of the super-sovereign reserve currency system itself and the lack of international recognition, these proposals are unlikely to be implemented. Nonetheless, China's suggestions do carry significant implications. The ideas put forth by China are the first major proposals for reforming the international monetary system from China, or any emerging market economy. This reflects the emergence of China as a major economic power and its increasingly global role. In addition, China is the largest holder of dollar assets, and its public expression of concern on the rising risk of the dollar and the rising likelihood that it will adjust its foreign reserve portfolio will have an significant impact on the dollar's trends. □ Accelerating internationalization of the RMB Considering the RMB settlement regime in international trade, the proportion of RMB denominated financial assets circulating in international financial markets, and the proportion of RMB reserves held by central banks around the world, the RMB's internationalization is still relatively low. However, the Chinese government has made significant efforts to promote circulation of RMB denominated assets, and in order to expand the settlement role of the RMB, has selected 5 cities to experiment with RMB denominated international trade settlements with neighboring countries. In addition, currency swaps totalling 650 billion yuan have been signed with six countries and areas in the past six months. □ Vision for an internationalized RMB The dollar is unlikely to lose its reserve status in the foreseeable future. The dollar remains dominant both in international trade and in financial markets, and conditions are not yet conducive to the euro, SDRs or any other currency replacing the dollar. However, with China's rapid growth and increasingly global role, the RMB is likely to emerge as a candidate for a future reserve currency. As China's contribution to the world economy grows, many countries, particularly emerging markets, are growing increasingly reliant on trade with China. In addition, the recovery of China's economy is necessary for a rebound of the world economy, making the "Beijing Consensus" increasingly important. For the RMB to take a dominant role in the international monetary system, China will need to build an open financial market, allow unfettered conversion of the RMB and allow exchange rates to float freely. However, satisfying these conditions will take a considerable amount of time and effort by the government. In the near term, the promotion of RMB circulation and an expansion of the RMB's influence in emerging markets and the rest of Asia are likely.